Winter Storm Outlook Page



This is our redesigned outlook page, and we've added some touches we feel you will appreciate and find more user friendly. The main changes to this product were to completely revise the outlook into two (2) sections, short range and mid range. The short range part will cover the first three (3) days of the forecast period, and will be broken down on to a day by day basis. Both a text discussion and graphics will be used to summerize each day's potential for a major winter storm. The mid range part will cover the remaining five (5) day period of the outlook. Again, as with the short range period, this extended period will be broken down in a day by day basis, and will use both text and graphics to summerize each day's potential for a major winter storm. Minor weather systems which affects our coverage region, and/or lake affect snow events will not be mentioned.


WINTER STORM OUTLOOK INFORMATION

The outlook products are routinely issued daily around 1000 am CST, then are updated thoughout the day as needed. Minor weather systems which are expected to produce less then four (4) inches of snowfall, will not be given any categorical or probability thresholds. Instead, a brief discussion of what to expect will appear in the discussion area. All significant or major storms will be ranking based on magnitude and expected impacts on the area. The table below will be used to illustrate this potential, or "degree of threat" for incoming systems to affect our coverage region.

STORM POTENTIAL PROBABLISTIC POTENTIAL DEFINITION - WHAT IT MEANS
ALL CLEAR - NO STORMS EXPECTED None. No significant, widespread major winter storms are expected.
MINIMAL THREAT Probabilities generally about 10 percent, or less. This indicates a very slim chance for a major storm.
LOW THREAT Probabilities of 20 percent, but less then 50 percent. This indicates a low chance for a major winter storm.
MODERATE THREAT Probabilities of 50 percent, but less then 70 percent. This indicates medium chances for a major winter storm.
HIGH THREAT Probabilities of 70 percent, but less then 90 percent. This indicates very good chances for a major winter storm.
STORM IN PROGRESS Probabilities of 90 percent or greater. This indicates a major winter storm is in progress over the coverage region.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK - DAYS 1 THROUGH 3



BRIEF FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A powerful late season storm located over far northwest MN will lift north northeast in Canada over the
next 24-36 hour period. About the only major impact from this system will be very strong winds across
much of the region. Gusts in excess of 50 mph are likely at times, and this could topple a few trees and
power lines. High profile vehicles too, may experience difficulties, especially on north-south roads and
highways. The low should be well east of the region by Thursday, as the flow aloft remains mostly zonal.

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Categorical Risk Probabilities Forecast Discussion

DAY ONE (TODAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant snowfall is not expected.

DAY TWO (WEDNESDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant snowfall is not expected.

DAY THREE (THURSDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%.
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant snowfall is not expected.

MID RANGE OUTLOOK - DAYS 4 THROUGH 8

This is the mid range winter storm outlook which covers the remainder of the entire forecast period. Forecasts more in advance like this are often "less" accurate then the first part above. There are many reasons for this, including model variability and inconsistencies, poor model run-to-run consistency, and so on. But, despite these cons, we try our best to provide as much information as we can. Each day of this forecast period is provided seperately, making it easier to understand and use. The time period for each day is from 7 am LT (12 UTC), to 7 am LT (12 UTC) the following day.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS VALID FROM: 03-07-17 UNTIL 03-14-17.



BRIEF FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The zonal, or near zonal flow aloft is forecast to amplify some as a high pressure ridge tries to
build over the Pacific northwest/western Canada by Thursday/dy-6. This system then dives southeast
into the northcentral plains region. Meanwhile, pieces of energy riding within the jet will also
be heading southeastward, and cross our coverage region. These systems will bring some light
precipitation to parts of the region from time to time, but no major storms are forecast.

$$

Categorical Risk Probabilities Forecast Discussion

DAY FOUR (FRIDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant winter weather conditions are NOT expected this period.

DAY FIVE (SATURDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant winter weather conditions are NOT expected this period.

DAY SIX (SUNDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%.
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant winter weather conditions are NOT expected this period.

DAY SEVEN (MONDAY)

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL = 00%
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

Widespread significant winter weather conditions are NOT expected this period.

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