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RSWOPPS

POST/PRE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT WI
238 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

NOTICE...THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED DURING ANY POST OR PRE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER
EVENTS OVER OUR COVERAGE REGION. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLINE IS INCLUDED.

CATEGORICAL NO RISK SLIGHT MODERATE HIGH
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THUNDERSTORM INITIATION STORMS ONGOING 9AM TO 12PM 1PM TO 4PM 5PM TO 8PM 8PM OR LATER
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THUNDERSTORM MODE NONE LINEAR SINGLECELL MULTICELL SUPERCELL
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POST/PRE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK GRAPHICS
[Outlook Information]
* These graphics will highlight the potential for any severe weather during this outlook period. Mouse over tabs to view all graphics.


    CATEGORICAL        |          TORNADOES        |          DAMAGING WINDS        |          LARGE HAIL        


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION:

** SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DECREASING WITH TIME **

SUMMARY OF THE 2000 UTC...300 PM CDT...FORECAST INFORMATION:
__________________________________________________________________________________

20Z UPDATE...

BASED ON RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 18Z...AND OBSERVED TRENDS ON BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
WI/LM/LOWER MI. EXTENSIVE CLOUD BANK AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS
HAVE LIMITED THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE REDUCED THE RISK FOR MORE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FROM IL EAST INTO
IND FOR TIME BEING AS STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED AND BETTER
INSTABILITY RESIDES IN THOSE AREAS TOO. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST REASONING CITED BELOW. UPDATED GRAPHICS DUE OUT SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT...

SYNOPSIS AND 6-HOUR DISCUSSION:

THE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE DEEP MID- TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TORWARDS MN BY TONIGHT...THEN BE OVER LS SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEAST SD WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NORTHEAST IA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LM WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO MO.
THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING MORE
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF WI/IL/LM...

WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
THIS MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60'S SURFACE DEW POINTS. REGIONAL 88D
MOSAICS SHOW SOME SCATTERED STORMS GRAZING PARTS OF IL/LM/LOWER MI ATTM...AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WI...MI...AND IL.
CLEARING WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO IA. AS THE AFORMENTIONED FEATURES
MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SUBSTAINTIAL SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE/2000 J/KG MUCAPES/. THIS COUPLED WITH
AT LEAST MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/25-35 KTS 0-6KM SHEAR/SHOULD HELP FOSTER SOME
MULTICELL CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE
HAIL. DECENT BACKED LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SR INFLOW INVOC OF WARM FRONT MAY PROOVE
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE. 

THE NEXT UPDATE:

THE NEXT REGULAR UPDATE IS SCHEDULED FOR 800 PM CDT.

FORECASTER: REESE

NNN

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