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FORECAST CENTER
storm

UTC

Welcome! To our redesigned page for our suite of forecast products we call our "Forecast Center". This is where you will find not only our forecast products, but also blank plotting charts you can use for plotting your own weather data, analysis charts, some site specific severe weather probabilities, and more. Just scroll down this page to see what is here and available.


NEWS FLASH!!

  • SPECIALTY RUN, analysis charts both surface and aloft can be found here. Note: these charts are primarily for pilots and other meteorologists as an aid in their forecast and research efforts.
  • OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS

    This is the guts of our work in the Storm Center everyday. The following is the complete roster of outlook products we issue. Please bear in mind that these products are only for our coverage region. We do not issue products for the entire U.S., but you can find them here. Most outlooks below are issued initially at 1100 UTC/600am, then routinely updated at various times throughout the respective forecast periods. The table shown just below, illustrates when each outlook is initially issued and updated.

    FORECAST PRODUCT Initially Issued Update Time(s)
    SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-DAY 1 1100 UTC/600 AM CDT This product updates at 1600 UTC/1100am, 2000 UTC/300pm, and finally at 0100 UTC/800pm.
    SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-DAY 2 1300/800 AM CDT This product updates again around 1900 UTC/200pm.
    SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK-DAY 3 1330 UTC/830 AM CDT This product is not routinely updated, unless it's necessary.
    SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAYS 4-8 1400 UTC/900 AM CDT This product is not routinely updated until the following day.
    GREAT LAKES SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 1430 UTC/900 AM CDT These products are updated around 2100 UTC/400pm.
    HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOOD OUTLOOK 1500 UTC/1000 AM CDT This product updates on an "as-needed" basis.
    OFF SEASON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 1500 UTC/1000 AM CDT This product will update again at 2000 UTC/300pm CST.

    All routinely issued severe weather outlooks which are available and current, are shown in the table below. However, product updates come at later times throughout that forecast period. So, if you see a red "X" in the update time section(s), that means no update is available (see above table for update times). All product updates will be online within 10 minutes of their scheduled update times. A new short term product will be forthcoming as an experimental product. Details on this "new" product can be found on our events page.
    Products and updates which ARE availabe and online will be shown with a check mark.
    Product updates which are unavailable will be marked with a mark.

    OUTLOOK PRODUCT INITIAL ISSUANCE UPDATE 1 UPDATE 2 UPDATE 3
    SWO-DAY 1
    600 AM CDT 1100 AM CDT 300 PM CDT 800 PM CDT
    SWO-DAY 2
    800 AM CDT 200 PM CDT
    SWO-DAY 3
    830 AM CDT NO UPDATE
    SWO DAYS 4-8
    900 AM CDT NO UPDATE
    GREAT LAKES SEVERE
    WEATHER OUTLOOK
    900 AM CDT 400 PM CDT
    OFF SEASON SEVERE
    WEATHER OUTLOOK
    1000 AM CST 300 PM CST

    NOTE: To learn about our outlook products, and how to understand them better, just head here.

    IMPACTS ON SOCIETY

    This item has been removed, and will be updated soon.

    SELECTED CITIES SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES

    Shown in the table below, are calculated probabilities for all facets of severe weather for a specified location. These probabilities are expressed in percent. The probabilities are calculated using our in-house software which takes multiple parameters and datasets and gives us an number (output). That number is the probability that element will happen at or near the location mentioned.

    City/State Large Hail Damaging Winds Tornadoes Heavy Rainfall
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%
    XX 0% 0% 0% 0%

    The selected cities severe probabilities table represents the calculated probability for each element shown in the table to strike within 15 miles of selected city location.

    BLANK STATION CHARTS

    For those who are searching for a decent depiction of both surface and upper air stations across the conus, that is "contenential U.S., we now offer the charts shown below. While the surface chart shows many of the primary stations, it does not show any recently added station(s). The upper air chart shows all the primary stations. Feel free to download a copy of these charts for your use! These charts are in PDF format.



      Storm spotters
      SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT

      All spotter groups should monitor this section when a threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected anywhere across our coverage region. Also, we highlight any coordination we plan with other agencies, especially when a significant or major severe weather outbreak is forecast. The table below shows the levels of activation used and their meanings.
    1. None. No severe weather expected. Activation not needed.
    2. Possible. Severe weather is possible. Activation maybe needed.
    3. Likely. Severe weather imminent. Activation will be needed.
    4. *Mandatory. All spotter groups are requested to activate. See below.
    5. * = Although not very common, this level is used to indicate that a moderate or higher severe weather risk has been issued for the specified locations. We urge all spotter groups in those areas to hoist their networks and alert their spottors accordingly. This level will only be used in such situations.

      SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION: NONE POSSIBLE LIKELY MANDATORY
      Mark

      NWS/LEM COORDINATION NONE NEEDED POSSIBLE LIKELY CONFERENCE SCHEDULED
      Mark

      All information presented on this page appears courtesy of our Storm Center. It is placed here for your use and information only, and is not intended to replace official information issued by the National Weather Service. All forecast products, including chart graphics, text, and such are copyrighted material, and may not be copied, duplicated, transcribed, or by any means electrical or mechanical, without the express written permission from our staff. Violations to this will result in prosecution of the offender to the full extent of the law.

      The following links will provide you with addition severe weather information....
    6. Here are some composite parameter charts.
    7. Basic surface and upper air charts.
    8. SPC is for all outlooks and watches nationally.
    9. Web page and all contents © Copyright Midwest Weather Service Storm Center 2015, All rights reserved.