SRT01
  
  SITUATION REPORT DISCUSSION 03
  MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE/SCO STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
  423 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2018
  
  Locations affected....Parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
  
  Concerning....Severe thunderstorm potential...Watch issuance possible.
  
  Valid....152123Z - 160100Z
  
  Probability of watch issuances....50 %...or possible.
  
  Summary...
  Thunderstorms are starting to increase in coverage and intensity into the late afternoon hours. Trends will be closely monitored for a
  possible watch issuance by SPC within the next few hours.
  
  Discussion...
  Latest visible satellite loops continues to show CU/TCU starting to bubble across southeast MN into northern and western WI attm.
  Latest suface analysis shows a warm front moving north across MN/WI now, and a cold front entering MN. Warm sector environment is
  becoming moist and very unstable, as sampled be the 18Z roab sounding at KDVN showing about 3500 J/KG MLCAPES. This coupled with
  around 45 knots of shear should result in continued storm development into the evening hours. Given the setup, large hail and damaging
  winds will be the primary threats, although a few isolated tornadoes may occur invoc of advancing warm front where low level SR inflow
  is backed. A watch issuance is possible within a few hours by SPC
  
  Forecaster: Wilson/Musher