SRT01
  
  SITUATION REPORT DISCUSSION 02
  MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE/SCO STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
  515 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
  
  Locations affected....Portions of northern and central Wisconsin.
  
  Concerning....Severe thunderstorm potential...Watch is likely.
  
  Valid....192215Z - 200100Z
  
  Probability of watch issuances....95 %...or likely.
  
  Summary...
  Supercells will transition into bowing segments late this afternoon. Expect intense bow to track southeast across parts of
  northern and central WI this evening and a downstream watch will be needed soon.
  
  Discussion...
  Earlier discrete supercells across northern/central MN have begun to transition into bowing clusters late this afternoon.
  Visible satellite presentation has been impressive over the last hour or so, with extreme instability apparent in thick
  HCR/cloud street CU field streaming into ongoing convection. Pressure falls to the southeast of ongoing convection
  across west-central WI over the last couple of hours have resulted in increasing southeasterly low level inflow and
  convection has started developing into this inflow. 2-6 km lapse rates greater than 8 C/km are aiding in large hail
  potential and several reports of 2+ inch hail have already been reported. This hail threat may continue for another
  couple of hours, but as storms continue to transition from supercells into a bow echo, the hail threat will diminish
  some with an increasing threat for damaging winds. Given the degree of instability with upper 70s to low 80s surface
  dewpoints and a 40-50 kt increasing southwesterly low level jet this evening, some wind gusts could be significant
  (possibly even greater than 85 mph).

  In addition to intense wind potential, QLCS tornadoes through mesovortex processes also will be possible. Regional
  VWP wind profiles show enhanced vertically veering profiles with mesoanalysis indicating a large area of effective
  SRH greater than 250 m2/s2 across the region. Latest storm track brings the lead supercell/bowing segments across
  Sawyer County WI to the edge of WW 524 by 23Z and a downstream watch will be need across parts of
  northern andcentral WI from the SPC.
  
  Forecaster: Hendrix