SRT01
  
SITUATION REPORT DISCUSSION 01
MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE/SCO STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
  
Locations affected....Portions of Minnesota.
  
Concerning....Severe thunderstorm potential...Watch issuance likely.
  
Valid....191937Z - 190300Z
  
Likelihood of additional watch issuances....95 %...or likely.
  
Summary...
Storms are expected to form over west central Minnesota around 20-21Z, with supercells possible initially. Tornadoes and
large hail are likely. A damaging wind threat is expected later today as storms merge into an MCS. A tornado watch will be
required soon.

Discussion...

The combination of satellite imagery and surface observations show an east west oriented outflow boundary across
southern MN, with low pressure over east-central SD into southwest MN. A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass exists
along and south of the boundary where temperatures continue to rise above 90 F. While temperatures north of the
boundary are relatively cooler, rapid recovery will occur due to southwest flow just above the surface combined with mixing.
Substantial pressure falls are occurring over the cooler air, mainly due to warm advection just off the surface. Deep, moist
convergence is currently centered over west-central MN, and this is where several models suggest initiation will occur. This
seems reasonable, especially once warmer temperatures > 90 F arrive.

Backed surface winds are contributing to 0-1 SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2, with relatively low LCLs near the boundary,
and extreme instability. This will certainly support supercells and tornadoes, assuming discrete cells. As such, a tornado
watch will be needed soon. Eventually, storms will merge into an MCS with a damaging wind threat.

Forecaster: Hall/Carlson