DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
REGIONAL 4-8 DAY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
820 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017
PLEASE NOTE...This product is for guidance purposes primarily, therefore, forecast errors may be large.
OUTLOOK PERIOD: 07/31/17 - 08/04/17.
The pattern aloft will remain dominated by mid laditude ridging across the west, and sharp troughing across
the eastern coast. With the jet remaining north across southern Canada, any perturbations within it should
also pass by north and east of the region, so thunderstorm chances in general will not be high. As such, no
severe storms are expected at this juncture.
OUTLOOK GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS
Inportant, please read:
The severe criteria for the 4-8 day severe outlook differs from that used in our other severe weather products.
Here, a slight risk would equate to 10% probabilities, and a moderate risk would equate to 20% probabilities.
Note: Each day is from 1200Z to 1200Z the next day.
Whenever the wording on the composite graphic (above), shows the text "SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW", this indicates severe storms maybe possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model guidance,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or,
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
If it appears that little to no potential exists for severe convection of any kind throughout the entire 4-8 day
forecast period, the composite graphic above will have the following wording,
"THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED" on it.
Risk areas will be shown in the graphics above only when a categorical slight risk (10% or greater
probabilities) exists within our coverage region.
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