DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
841 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY OF THE 09/01/18 to 09/02/18...1200Z TO 1200Z...INFORMATION:
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast Saturdday afternoon and evening as a cold front advances across the region. Some
storms may be strong.
CATEGORICAL RISK HEADLINES...
THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL.
SYNOPSIS AND SUMMARY...
West to southwesterly flow aloft should continue across the central rockies into our coverage region to the mid Atlantic coast. This pattern is in
response to retrogressing of mid laditude anticyclone across much of the southeast states and mid Atlantic region, and digging western states mid -
to upper level closed low which will be moving toward the central rockies. Pieces of energy will be rounding the base of this broader upper level
low, and ejecting east northeastward across the northcentral plains. However, questions remain as to what influences these energy perturbations
will have concerning any severe weather potential for our region. This is due because much of the guidance wants to shove the belt of westerlies
further north across Canada going into next week. As a result, a very low confidence forecast is made at this point.
That said, a surface cold frontal boundary should be slowly moving across MN into WI and eastern IA during the afternoon. With abundant low level
moisture in place across the warm sector, and strong surface diabatic heating taking place, lapse rates should quickly steepen and result in at least
modest to large instability spreading across the discussion area by peak heating. This coupled with about 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear should be
sufficient for some organized multicell clusters offering a large diameter hail and damaging wind potential. But again, since this is a low confidence
forecast, future outlooks may change.
THE NEXT UPDATE:
The next outlook update is scheduled for 900 AM Friday.
All information and graphics © 2018 Midwest Weather Service Storm Center, All rights reserved.