DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
827 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY OF THE 07/14/19 to 07/15/19...1200Z TO 1200Z...INFORMATION:
CATEGORICAL RISK HEADLINES...
SYNOPSIS AND SUMMARY...
Another carbon copy of the day 2 forecast, with the flow aloft mainly west northwest across the area. Next upstream disturbance
across the Dakots will move east, reaching the upper MS valley late in the period. At the surface, a stationary boundary across IA
and Il is forecast to begin lifting northward. As better moisture/instability likewise begins surging north, some thunderstorm
development appears likely invoc of this boundary. However, models continue diverging on scenaries, rending more uncertainty
to the forecast. Latest thinking is that a linear squall line, or broken line segments are most likely given the current setup. This
could result in at least some potential for severe storms. But for now, we'll go with no risk areas drawn.
THE NEXT UPDATE:
The next outlook update is scheduled for 900 AM Monday.
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