DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY OF THE 191900Z - 201200Z...INFORMATION.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Elsewhere, it should remain dry.
CATEGORICAL RISK HEADLINES...
Primary flow aloft will continue along the northern tier of states, east to the Atlantic coast. A mid level shortwave trough is progged to
move into northcentral MN. This will be accompanied by a surface cold front moving east. These features may produce a few afternoon
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
While the downstream warm sector won't be overly moist, dew points ranging from 60-65 degrees F, and strong day time diabatic surface
heating should foster at least modest instability by peak heating. The lack of better storm coverage and weaker flow aloft argues against
any organized severe storm development. That said, given the instability and effective shear of 30 knots, some strong cores may develop
and offer a risk for high winds and some hail. But again, the coverage will be low, so many locations may not see any stronger storms.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERN AREAS:
THE NEXT UPDATE:
The next forecast update is scheduled for 700 am Thursday.
All information and graphics © Copyright 2018 by Midwest Weather Service Storm Center, All rights reserved.