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This is our main severe weather forecast product or "convective outlook", for the coverage region for today. This product is routinely updated several times during the period so that you can keep current on the latest severe weather information. If a significant severe weather outbreak is forecast, such information will be highlighted in the appropriate section of this product.

THE OUTLOOK DETAILS AT A GLANCE

Categorical
NO SEVERE STORMS
LIMITED
SLIGHT
ELEVATED
MODERATE
HIGH
Thunderstorm Mode
None
Sub-Severe
QLCS - Quasi-Linear Convective System
Multicell - Clusters/lines
Supercell
Storms in progress
Thunderstorm Timing
None
After 9:00 am
After 1:00 pm
After 4:00 pm
After 7:00 pm
Storms In Progress
Probabilities
Tornadoes (F0-F2)
Large Diameter Hail
Damaging Winds


Violent Tornadoes (F3-F5)


Very Large Hail (2"+)

Derecho Event

Thunderstorm Coverage

No coverage
Isolated
Widely Scattered
Scattered
Scattered to numerous
Widespread

1600 UTC DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS

Categorical Tornado Winds Large Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties



RACDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
1028 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SUMMARY OF THE 1600 UTC...1100 AM...INFORMATION.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

Isolated showers and a few thundershowers are possible across mainly Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

CATEGORICAL RISK HEADLINES...

None.

...20Z UPDATE...
Convective temperatures are being reached across the area, but both 88D and satellite data shows only a few showers across north central
WI into MN at this time.  Owing to a weak set of parameters, have toyed with the idea of removing all mentioning of thunderstorms.
But, will let later shifts asses this. Otherwise, no adjustments needed to ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion...

SYNOPSIS...

Main belt of westerlies will remain confined to just north of the Canadian border. Meanwhile, an ejecting mid level shortwave will move
from NEB into southeast WI by 15/00Z. Another upstream perturbation across the Canadian priairies will slowly shear eastward through
the end of this forecast period. At the surface, a cold front moving southeast across Minnesota will move into northern WI/upper MI during
the evening. This boundary may generate a few scattered storms.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

While low level moisture remains somewhat limited, strong surface diurnal heating into peak heating will work to destabilize the
environment ahead of approaching front. With steepening lapse rates at least modest instability/MUCAPE of 800-1000 J/KG/should spread
across the warm sector. Only limiting factor for more organize robust convection is the winds aloft. The flow aloft remains weak and varied
across the region. This will limit any organized updrafts. That said, the latest CAMS do show some thunderstorms by 23Z-03Z time frame.
No severe storms are expected.

THE NEXT UPDATE:

The next forecast update is scheduled for 700 PM.

FORECASTER: Kellner

NNN

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