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This is our main severe weather forecast product or "convective outlook", for the coverage region for today. This product is routinely updated several times during the period so that you can keep current on the latest severe weather information. If a significant severe weather outbreak is forecast, such information will be highlighted in the appropriate section of this product.

THE OUTLOOK DETAILS AT A GLANCE

Categorical
NO SEVERE STORMS
LIMITED
SLIGHT
ELEVATED
MODERATE
HIGH
Thunderstorm Mode
None
Sub-Severe
QLCS - Quasi-Linear Convective System
Multicell - Clusters/lines
Supercell
Storms in progress
Thunderstorm Timing
None
After 9:00 am
After 1:00 pm
After 4:00 pm
After 7:00 pm
Storms In Progress
Probabilities
Tornadoes (F0-F2)
Large Diameter Hail
Damaging Winds


Violent Tornadoes (F3-F5)


Very Large Hail (2"+)

Derecho Event

Thunderstorm Coverage

No coverage
Isolated
Widely Scattered
Scattered
Scattered to numerous
Widespread

1600 UTC DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS

Categorical Tornado Winds Large Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties



RACDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
SCO/MIDWEST WEATHER SERVICE STEVENS POINT/WHITING WI
217 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2018
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SUMMARY OF THE 2000 UTC...300 PM...INFORMATION.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible later on this evening mainly across Minnesota in association with a mid level perturbation
moving through the area.

CATEGORICAL RISK HEADLINES...

None

SYNOPSIS...

Belt of westerlies continues running along the Canadian border from the high plain east to the mid Atlantic coast. A mid level perturbation caught
within this flow will eject eastward from the Canadian prairies to LS by 31/00Z. A weak surface trough will concurrently move east into MN as low
level southerly flow continues an influx of deeper moisture.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

As stronger low level moisture advection increases during the evening, this should help increase lapse rates, and instability just ahead of these
approaching features. At this point, any instability should be elevated so their may be some potential for strong gusty winds and marginally severe
hail with any of the stronger cores. However, organized severe storms are highly unlikely at this point. This situation will be closely monitored.

THE NEXT UPDATE:

The next forecast update is scheduled for 800 PM.

FORECASTER: Patrick


NNN

All information and graphics © Copyright 2018 by Midwest Weather Service Storm Center, All rights reserved.